More ranges, more pivot points, more trends, more chopatility, more uncertainty, more of EVERYTHING you've come to know and love about 2009. The conclusive tone is used here because nothing changes, nothing will change, and nothing CAN change until some time into the new year. That's it. It's done folks… 2009 is [...]]]> Posted To: MBS Commentary

More ranges, more pivot points, more trends, more chopatility, more uncertainty, more of EVERYTHING you've come to know and love about 2009. The conclusive tone is used here because nothing changes, nothing will change, and nothing CAN change until some time into the new year. That's it. It's done folks… 2009 is but a fading memory as of 5pm today. The FOMC statement was our last big chance for a piece of data or a headline event to come along and exert such a force on MBS and the yield curve that they'd be nudged off their long term ranges. And though it came closer and gave a better head-fake than any event of the last several months, it failed to confirm, and where do we end up? Let's run down the list: MBS spreads are in a constant state of flux so they get a pass…(read more)

Mortgage rates fell yesterday afternoon as benchmark Treasury yields fell and mortgage backed security prices rallied. MBS price appreciations were quite sizeable, allowing many lenders to reprice for the better, which lowered mortgage rates. While AQ outlined a variety of technical reasons behind the rally in bond markets, the best explanation [...]]]> Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates fell yesterday afternoon as benchmark Treasury yields fell and mortgage backed security prices rallied. MBS price appreciations were quite sizeable, allowing many lenders to reprice for the better, which lowered mortgage rates. While AQ outlined a variety of technical reasons behind the rally in bond markets, the best explanation was weakness in stocks which pushed money into safer government-backed Treasury securities. There were no scheduled economic releases or Fed speakers today. Today was the last Friday trading session of 2009! On a side note, Ben Bernanke was reconfirmed yesterday as Federal Reserve Chairman by a vote of 16 to 7, the vote now goes to the Senate when session resumes in late January. The debate to confirm Bernanke was highly contested. I am curious….do…(read more)

By Mercy Jiménez Co-founder of Covered Bond Investor The much-anticipated Congressional hearing on covered bonds held December 15 appeared to show that even in the current polarized political environment, it is sometimes possible for both sides of the aisle to get behind a good idea. Covered bonds are a form of [...]]]> Posted To: Voice of Housing

By Mercy Jiménez Co-founder of Covered Bond Investor The much-anticipated Congressional hearing on covered bonds held December 15 appeared to show that even in the current polarized political environment, it is sometimes possible for both sides of the aisle to get behind a good idea. Covered bonds are a form of on-balance sheet financing that is widely used in Europe. Bondholders are protected by dual recourse — both to the issuer and to a “cover pool” of assets. Unlike securitization, with covered bonds any assets in a cover pool that deteriorate over time can be replaced or supplemented with better loans. Members of the House Committee on Financial Services, led by Chairman Barney Frank, took a look at covered bonds as a much-needed possible additional source of funding…(read more)

Here's the damage so far today: – MBS 4.0's down 12 ticks to 98-18 – MBS 4.5's down 8 ticks to 101-09 – 10yr Tsy down 17 ticks in price, up 6.4 bps in yield to 3.544 – Stocks mostly unchanged, still very range-bound And by the time the close rolls around [...]]]> Posted To: MBS Commentary

Here's the damage so far today: – MBS 4.0's down 12 ticks to 98-18 – MBS 4.5's down 8 ticks to 101-09 – 10yr Tsy down 17 ticks in price, up 6.4 bps in yield to 3.544 – Stocks mostly unchanged, still very range-bound And by the time the close rolls around in a few hours, what we will likely have seen is a trading week that set up at the outer limits of a long term range, got extremely volatile amidst key data, and returned to a status quo at those outer limits by week's end. In the charts below, the circles around monday's action show how current price levels are very much in line with Monday AM's trading range. For tsy's, the long tracked 3.56 technical range boundary looks to be holding up for now, simply reiterating the same lessons we've been exposed to for…(read more)

Arthur D’Arcy “Bobby” Locke (1917-1987) was one of the first internationally successful South African golfers. He was inducted into the World Golf Hall of Fame in 1977. His famous saying was “You drive for show but putt for dough. ” So what does Bobby Locke’s famous saying have to do with the [...]]]> Posted To: Community Commentary

Arthur D’Arcy “Bobby” Locke (1917-1987) was one of the first internationally successful South African golfers. He was inducted into the World Golf Hall of Fame in 1977. His famous saying was “You drive for show but putt for dough. ” So what does Bobby Locke’s famous saying have to do with the mortgage business? Let’s take a look at the two key words in this quote: show and dough. Have you ever noticed at industry events that people always want to brag about their loan volume and never talk about how much money they’re making? What we often find in our reviews that management’s primary focus is on loan volume, branch expansion…grow, grow, grow! Loan volume growth looks great as does the golf ball sailing down the fairway. You need loan…(read more)

Although not far removed from the tight range that has held all day, the FN 4.5 is at session lows. Considering it's a Friday and many lock desks are enjoying holiday work parties (or holiday work party hang overs)…I would be issuing a reprice for the worse just to avoid having to [...]]]> Posted To: MBS Commentary

Although not far removed from the tight range that has held all day, the FN 4.5 is at session lows. Considering it's a Friday and many lock desks are enjoying holiday work parties (or holiday work party hang overs)…I would be issuing a reprice for the worse just to avoid having to do extra work. REPRICES FOR THE WORSE ARE POSSIBLE UPDATED AT 1:05PM ITS GOTTEN WORSE!…(read more)

Rates trader's are celebrating the last Friday trading session of 2009 by…….NOT TRADING! Today has indeed been a reeeeeal snoozer in the rates market. Both 10s and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons haven't made much progress in either direction. In the TSY futures market, 300,000 contracts have traded, mostly back and forth [...]]]> Posted To: MBS Commentary

Rates trader's are celebrating the last Friday trading session of 2009 by…….NOT TRADING! Today has indeed been a reeeeeal snoozer in the rates market. Both 10s and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons haven't made much progress in either direction. In the TSY futures market, 300,000 contracts have traded, mostly back and forth around 118-00 with several failed attempts at 118-04. Notice a lack of progress in either direction. In the cash market, the 10yr note is hovering around the all-important 3.50% pivot point. The 3.375 coupon bearing 10yr TSY note is currently -0-05 at 98-30 yielding 3.503%. In the range then out, in the range then out. SEEE…. Slow flows and sideways price action are obvious the TBA MBS market too…only 3,000 trades have printed to data feeds….(read more)

Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt, declined slightly during the third quarter according to data released on Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The conclusion was based on MBA's analysis of the Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds data. During the third quarter the amount of commercial/multifamily debt outstanding declined by $28 billion or [...]]]> Posted To: MND NewsWire

Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt, declined slightly during the third quarter according to data released on Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The conclusion was based on MBA's analysis of the Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds data. During the third quarter the amount of commercial/multifamily debt outstanding declined by $28 billion or 0.8 percent to a total of $3.43 trillion. The multifamily mortgage debt portion of the total declined $1 billion or 0.1 percent to $912 billion. The bulk of the commercial/multifamily debt is held by commercial banks, which have a 45 percent share or $1.53 billion on their books. The MBA notes, however, that among the holdings of the top 10 commercial real estate bank lenders 48 percent of these mortgages are actually real estate secured…(read more)

Given the confusion over compliance issues, I received notes yesterday from a few third party vendors. One producer wrote, " Encompass appears to be one of the best originating software tools that I have seen to give alerts to avoid falling out of compliance." A few others wrote to tell me that [...]]]> Posted To: Pipeline Press

Given the confusion over compliance issues, I received notes yesterday from a few third party vendors. One producer wrote, " Encompass appears to be one of the best originating software tools that I have seen to give alerts to avoid falling out of compliance." A few others wrote to tell me that PCLender created a resource document as a matrix that lists 20 known compliance issues, forms affected, and solutions. One picture is worth a thousand words: TAKE A LOOK . And I am sure there are many others. AmTrust Mortgage Banking didn't take long in working with New York Community Bank in cranking up their production machine. Starting today "AmTrust Mortgage Banking will resume accepting new loan registrations and rate-lock commitments, operating as a service provided by New York…(read more)

Good Morning All. Happy Last Quadruple Witching Day of 2009. More importantly, Happy Friday. Treasuries gave back some gains overnight. Several explanations could be offered but I think the most relevant observation continues to be "selling into strength" aka profit taking followed by fast money day traders "buying on the dips"….this is [...]]]> Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning All. Happy Last Quadruple Witching Day of 2009. More importantly, Happy Friday. Treasuries gave back some gains overnight. Several explanations could be offered but I think the most relevant observation continues to be "selling into strength" aka profit taking followed by fast money day traders "buying on the dips"….this is really just short covering, another form of profit taking. This should continue to occur at pivot points, the hope is that the trade continues to migrate lower in yield/higher in price. The 3.375 coupon bearing 10yr TSY note is currently -0-07 at 98-29 yielding 3.506%. Here's how the market looked overnight into this morning… "Rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are holding up well despite rising benchmark yields (which…(read more)